Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.771407 2.125443 2.523600 3.003302 3.564267 4.198141 4.967250
2026-01-11 1.313330 1.775777 2.352565 3.119567 4.106799 5.328164 6.946146
2026-01-18 0.993467 1.485543 2.154531 3.118942 4.459664 6.241320 8.768218
2026-01-25 0.750496 1.227208 1.926335 3.007185 4.611810 6.876293 10.275207
2026-02-01 0.579928 1.028627 1.733156 2.892187 4.714920 7.424718 11.694448
2026-02-08 0.476586 0.909382 1.631519 2.886285 4.960960 8.186678 13.484239
2026-02-15 0.399306 0.815602 1.550357 2.892530 5.214702 8.973303 15.377726
2026-02-22 0.332297 0.724856 1.456038 2.856588 5.385260 9.634240 17.125253
2026-03-01 0.265340 0.618850 1.314083 2.710486 5.340389 9.925072 18.281312
2026-03-08 0.223563 0.554521 1.238522 2.672619 5.477717 10.530541 20.014895
2026-03-15 0.191297 0.503357 1.179517 2.655815 5.647686 11.203554 21.919657
2026-03-22 0.178546 0.493967 1.205207 2.811683 6.164735 12.549874 25.143802
2026-03-29 0.160094 0.467655 1.191586 2.887108 6.538483 13.678760 28.096729
2026-04-05 0.147000 0.452039 1.199565 3.010547 7.025214 15.070167 31.668334
2026-04-12 0.128354 0.417258 1.156581 3.013470 7.258266 15.986345 34.405202
2026-04-19 0.106882 0.369015 1.071811 2.906220 7.238305 16.390890 36.168312
2026-04-26 0.088810 0.325723 0.991067 2.795058 7.193518 16.735590 37.834024
2026-05-03 0.077824 0.301315 0.955402 2.789437 7.388109 17.597476 40.626334
2026-05-10 0.068758 0.280663 0.926146 2.795523 7.610070 18.536166 43.652483
2026-05-17 0.059613 0.257083 0.883965 2.760687 7.727987 19.254885 46.263862
2026-05-24 0.048837 0.224177 0.807316 2.619052 7.562122 19.318986 47.452852
2026-05-31 0.042332 0.205347 0.770098 2.582347 7.658495 19.990958 50.040119
2026-06-07 0.037160 0.190164 0.741469 2.566059 7.805980 20.794480 52.985324